A discrete event system specification (DEVS)-based model of consanguinity

Noreen Akhtar, Muaz A. Niazi, Farah Mustafa, Amir Hussain

Consanguinity or inter-cousin marriage is a phenomenon quite prevalent in certain regions around the globe. Consanguineous parents have a higher risk of having offspring with congenital disorders. It is difficult to model large scale consanguineous parental populations because of disparate cultural issues unique to regions and cultures across the globe. Although consanguinity, as a social problem has been studied previously, consanguinity from a biological perspective has yet to be modeled. Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) formalism is a powerful modeling formalism for the study of intricate details of real-world complex systems. In this article, we develop a DEVS model to get an insight into the role of consanguineous marriages in the evolution of congenital disorders in a population. As proof-of-concept, we develop a consanguinity simulation model in Simio simulation software. Our results show the effectiveness of DEVS in the modeling of consanguinity effects in causing congenital defects.

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