Analysis of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics in networks via the non-backtracking matrix

Naoki Masuda, Masaki Ogura, Victor M. Preciado

We study the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model of epidemic processes on finite networks with arbitrary structure. We present a new lower bound on the exponential rate at which the probabilities of nodes being infected decay over time. This bound is directly related to the leading eigenvalue of a matrix that depends on the non-backtracking and incidence matrices of the network. The dimension of this matrix is N+M, where N and M are the number of nodes and edges, respectively. We show that this new lower bound improves on an existing bound corresponding to the so-called quenched mean-field theory. Although the bound obtained from a recently developed second-order moment-closure technique requires the computation of the leading eigenvalue of an N^2 x N^2 matrix, we illustrate in our numerical simulations that the new bound is tighter, while being computationally less expensive for sparse networks.

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