Real-time Prediction for Mechanical Ventilation in COVID-19 Patients using A Multi-task Gaussian Process Multi-objective Self-attention Network

Kai Zhang, Siddharth Karanth, Bela Patel, Robert Murphy, Xiaoqian Jiang

We propose a robust in-time predictor for in-hospital COVID-19 patient's probability of requiring mechanical ventilation. A challenge in the risk prediction for COVID-19 patients lies in the great variability and irregular sampling of patient's vitals and labs observed in the clinical setting. Existing methods have strong limitations in handling time-dependent features' complex dynamics, either oversimplifying temporal data with summary statistics that lose information or over-engineering features that lead to less robust outcomes. We propose a novel in-time risk trajectory predictive model to handle the irregular sampling rate in the data, which follows the dynamics of risk of performing mechanical ventilation for individual patients. The model incorporates the Multi-task Gaussian Process using observed values to learn the posterior joint multi-variant conditional probability and infer the missing values on a unified time grid. The temporal imputed data is fed into a multi-objective self-attention network for the prediction task. A novel positional encoding layer is proposed and added to the network for producing in-time predictions. The positional layer outputs a risk score at each user-defined time point during the entire hospital stay of an inpatient. We frame the prediction task into a multi-objective learning framework, and the risk scores at all time points are optimized altogether, which adds robustness and consistency to the risk score trajectory prediction. Our experimental evaluation on a large database with nationwide in-hospital patients with COVID-19 also demonstrates that it improved the state-of-the-art performance in terms of AUC (Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve) and AUPRC (Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve) performance metrics, especially at early times after hospital admission.

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