Data-driven method for real-time prediction and uncertainty quantification of fatigue failure under stochastic loading using artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression

Maor Farid

Various engineering systems such as naval and aerial vehicles, offshore structures, and mechanical components of motorized systems, are exposed to fatigue failures due to stochastic loadings. Methods for early failure prediction are essential for engineering, military, and civil applications. In addition to the prediction of time to failure (TtF), uncertainty quantification (UQ) is of major importance for real-time decision-making purposes. Usually, time domain or frequency domain methods are used for fatigue prediction, such as rainflow counting and Miner's rule or Dirlik's method. However, those methods suffer from over-simplistic modeling and inaccurate failure predictions under stochastic loadings. During the last years, several data-driven models were suggested for offline fatigue failure. However, most of them are not capable of both accurate real-time fatigue prediction and UQ. In the current work, a probabilistic data-driven model is introduced. A hybrid architecture of a fully-connected artificial neural network (FC-ANN) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to ensure enhanced predictive abilities and simultaneous UQ of the predicted TtF. The real-time prediction and UQ performances of the suggested model are validated using both synthetic and experimental data. This novel hybrid method is fully data-driven and extends the forecasting capabilities of existing time-domain and machine learning-based methods for fatigue prediction. It paves the way towards the development of a preventive system that provides real-time safety and operational instructions and insights for structural health monitoring (SHM) purposes, allowing prevention of environmental damage, and loss of human lives.

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