Rational Counterfactuals

Tshilidzi Marwala

This paper introduces the concept of rational countefactuals which is an idea of identifying a counterfactual from the factual (whether perceived or real) that maximizes the attainment of the desired consequent. In counterfactual thinking if we have a factual statement like: Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and consequently George Bush declared war on Iraq then its counterfactuals is: If Saddam Hussein did not invade Kuwait then George Bush would not have declared war on Iraq. The theory of rational counterfactuals is applied to identify the antecedent that gives the desired consequent necessary for rational decision making. The rational countefactual theory is applied to identify the values of variables Allies, Contingency, Distance, Major Power, Capability, Democracy, as well as Economic Interdependency that gives the desired consequent Peace.

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