Can Datacenters Get the Power Needed to Meet the Explosive Demand for AI?

Liuzixuan Lin, Rajini Wijayawardana, Varsha Rao, Hai Nguyen, Wedan Emmanuel Gnibga, Andrew A. Chien

The unprecedented rapid growth of computing demand for AI is projected to increase annual datacenter (DC) growth from 7.2% to 11.3%. Some power grids already face difficulty accommodating new datacenters, so the availability of grid capacity will constrain datacenter capacity needed by AI growth. We project AI datacenter demand for the next five years and consider several ``desperate measures'' -- grid policies that enable more DC growth by sacrificing new DC reliability while maintaining grid reliability. In EirGrid where DC growth is already constrained, relaxing new DC reliability guarantees can increase the power available for DC growth to 1.6x--4.1x, sufficient to meet 5-year AI demand. Despite lower guarantees, we project the new datacenters will receive 99.6% power availability. In another challenged grid, Dominion, relaxing reliability guarantees increases available DC capacity similarly (1.5x--4.6x), and meets 70% of 5-year AI demand. Study of other grids -- SPP, CAISO, ERCOT -- shows that excess capacity exists for projected AI load growth.

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